"Global coal production outlooks based on a logistic model" Mikael Höök, Werner Zittel, Jörg Schindler, Kjell Aleklett Fuel, Volume 89, Issue 11, November 2010, Pages 3546-3558 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.fuel.2010.06.013 Abstract A small number of nations control the vast majority of the world’s coal reserves. The geologically available amounts of coal are vast, but geological availability is not enough to ensure future production since economics and restrictions also play an important role. Historical trends in reserve and resource assessments can provide some insight about future coal supply and provide reasonable limits for modelling. This study uses a logistic model to create long-term outlooks for global coal production. A global peak in coal production can be expected between 2020 and 2050, depending on estimates of recoverable volumes. This is also compared with other forecasts. The overall conclusion is that the global coal production could reach a maximum level much sooner than most observers expect.

"Validity of the fossil fuel production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios", Mikael Höök, Anders Sivertsson, and Kjell Aleklett (2010) Natural Resources Research 19: 63-81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11053-010-9113-1 Abstract Anthropogenic global warming caused by CO2 emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Previous scenarios were withdrawn after exaggerating one or several trends. This study investigates underlying assumptions on resource availability and future production expectations to determine whether exaggerations can be found in the present set of emission scenarios as well. It is found that the SRES unnecessarily takes an overoptimistic stance and that future production expectations are leaning toward spectacular increases from present output levels. In summary, we can only encourage the IPCC to involve more resource experts and natural science in future emission scenarios. The current set, SRES, is biased toward exaggerated resource availability and unrealistic expectations on future production outputs from fossil fuels.

"A global coal production forecast with multi-Hubbert cycle analysis" Tadeusz W. Patzek and Gregory D. Croft (2010) Energy, Volume 35, Issue 8, August 2010, Pages 3109-3122 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2010.02.009 Abstract Based on economic and policy considerations that appear to be unconstrained by geophysics, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) generated forty carbon production and emissions scenarios. In this paper, we develop a base-case scenario for global coal production based on the physical multi-cycle Hubbert analysis of historical production data. Areas with large resources but little production history, such as Alaska and the Russian Far East, are treated as sensitivities on top of this base-case, producing an additional 125 Gt of coal. The value of this approach is that it provides a reality check on the magnitude of carbon emissions in a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. The resulting base-case is significantly below 36 of the 40 carbon emission scenarios from the IPCC. The global peak of coal production from existing coalfields is predicted to occur close to the year 2011. The peak coal production rate is 160 EJ/y, and the peak carbon emissions from coal burning are 4.0 Gt C (15 Gt CO2) per year. After 2011, the production rates of coal and CO2 decline, reaching 1990 levels by the year 2037, and reaching 50% of the peak value in the year 2047. It is unlikely that future mines will reverse the trend predicted in this BAU scenario.

"Implications of fossil fuel constraints on economic growth and global warming" Willem P. Nel and Christopher J. Cooper (2009) Energy Policy, Volume 37, Issue 1, January 2009, Pages 166-180 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.08.013 Abstract Energy Security and Global Warming are analysed as 21st century sustainability threats. Best estimates of future energy availability are derived as an Energy Reference Case (ERC). An explicit economic growth model is used to interpret the impact of the ERC on economic growth. The model predicts a divergence from 20th century equilibrium conditions in economic growth and socio-economic welfare is only stabilised under optimistic assumptions that demands a paradigm shift in contemporary economic thought and focused attention from policy makers. Fossil fuel depletion also constrains the maximum extent of Global Warming. Carbon emissions from the ERC comply nominally with the B1 scenario, which is the lowest emissions case considered by the IPCC. The IPCC predicts a temperature response within acceptance limits of the Global Warming debate for the B1 scenario. The carbon feedback cycle, used in the IPCC models, is shown as invalid for low-emissions scenarios and an alternative carbon cycle reduces the temperature response for the ERC considerably compared to the IPCC predictions. Our analysis proposes that the extent of Global Warming may be acceptable and preferable compared to the socio-economic consequences of not exploiting fossil fuel reserves to their full technical potential.

"Forecasting coal production until 2100" S. H. Mohr, G. M. Evans Fuel, Volume 88, Issue 11, November 2009, Pages 2059-2067 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.fuel.2009.01.032 Abstract A model capable of projecting mineral resources production has been developed. The model includes supply and demand interactions, and has been applied to all coal producing countries. A model of worldwide coal production has been developed for three scenarios. The ultimately recoverable resources (URR) estimates used in the scenarios ranged from 700 Gt to 1243 Gt. The model indicates that worldwide coal production will peak between 2010 and 2048 on a mass basis and between 2011 and 2047 on an energy basis. The Best Guess scenario, assumed a URR of 1144 Gt and peaks in 2034 on a mass basis, and in 2026 on an energy basis.

"Historical trends in American coal production and a possible future outlook" Mikael Höök and Kjell Aleklett International Journal of Coal Geology, Volume 78, Issue 3, 1 May 2009, Pages 201-216 http://www.tsl.uu.se/uhdsg/Publications/USA_Coal.pdf Abstract The United States has a vast supply of coal, with almost 30% of world reserves (BP, 2008) and more than 1600 Gt (short) as remaining coal resources (Ruppert et al., 2002). The US is also the world’s second largest coal producer after China and annually produces more than twice as much coal as India, the third largest producer (BP, 2008). The reserves are concentrated in a few states, giving them a major influence on future production. Historically many states have also shown a dramatic reduction in recoverable coal volumes and this has been closely investigated. Current recoverable estimates may also be too high, especially if further restrictions are imposed. The average calorific value of US coals has decreased from 29.2 MJ/kg in 1950 to 23.6 MJ/kg in 2007 as U.S. production moved to subbituminous western coals (Annual Energy Review, 2007). This has also been examined in more detail. This study also uses established analysis methods from oil and gas production forecasting, such as Hubbert linearization and logistic curves, to create some possible future outlooks for U.S. coal production. In one case, the production stabilizes at 1400 Mt annually and remains there until the end of the century, provided that Montana dramatically increases coal output. The second case, which ignores mining restrictions, forecasts a maximum production of 2500 Mt annually by the end of the century.

"Coal: Bleak outlook for the black stuff" David Strahan New Scientist, 19 Jan 2008 www.trec-uk.org.uk/articles/NS_2008-01-19.html Ask most energy analysts how much coal we have left, and the answer will be some variant of "plenty". It is commonly agreed that supplies of coal will last for well over a century; coal is generally seen as our safety net in a world of dwindling oil supplies. But is it? A number of recent reports suggest coal reserves may be hugely inflated, a possibility that has profound implications for both global energy supply and climate change.

"Coal: Resources and future production" Energy Watch Group (2007) www.energywatchgroup.org/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG_Report_Coal_10-07-2007ms.pdf This paper attempts to give a comprehensive view of global coal resources and past and current coal production based on a critical analysis of available statistics. This analysis is then used to provide an outlook on the possible coal production in the coming decades. The result of the analysis is that there is probably much less coal left to be burnt than most people think.

"Mining the truth on coal supplies" Mason Inman National Geographic News, 8 Sept 2010 news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2010/09/100908-energy-peak-coal No matter how bad coal might be for the planet, the conventional wisdom is that there is so much of it underground that the world’s leading fuel for electricity will continue to dominate the energy scene unless global action is taken on climate change. But what if conventional wisdom is wrong?

"Hubbert's Peak, the Coal Question, and Climate Change" David Rutledge 52 minute lecture (streaming video) today.caltech.edu/theater/item?story_id=24502

"The End of Cheap Coal" Richard Heinberg and David Fridley Nature, 468, 367-369 (18 November 2010) http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/468367a Abstract New forecasts suggest that coal reserves will run out faster than many believe. Energy policies relying on cheap coal have no future, say Richard Heinberg and David Fridley. World energy policy is gripped by a fallacy — the idea that coal is destined to stay cheap for decades to come. This assumption supports investment in 'clean-coal' technology and trumps serious efforts to increase energy conservation and develop alternative energy sources.