Can oil production curves be modeled by Hubbert curves ?|
Conventional Peak Oil theory ( here ) uses Gaussian curves to model oil production curves.
The aim is to find the best fit between the model and the real production data,
but also constricted by the area under the curve (cumulative production) fitting the estimated Ultimately Recoverable Resource.
In 1956 Hubbert used the very similar Logistic curve to predict the peaking of US production in 1970, which turned out to be correct.
But although the US, Egyptian and Norwegian production histories are reasonably well-modelled by the Gaussian curve,
other countries do not fit the model so well.
In the following charts, the red curve is the best fit Gaussian to the data, and the URR constraint is not used.
US data is sourced from EIA,
and the others countries from BP's Statistical Review of World Energy (2005) .
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